Climate Change Research 2021
August 7, 2021 almost the main climate document for the world community was published, the research "Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis", conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international group of scientists and experts created in 1988 by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization that specializes in assessing current scientific evidence of climate change. Representatives of 195 countries of the world take part in the organization.
The aim of the group is to discuss current climate problems, scientific assessment of climate change, potential risks associated with this process, as well as prevention and resolution of the consequences.
The main tool for the implementation of scientific activities are reports about climate change. They are based on the principles of scientific evidence and objectivity. The latest published report contains a number of independent sources, giving a full assessment of the state of the climate, as well as the prospects and risks associated with human activities.
State of the climate in 2021
Scientists are unambiguous in their conclusion that the main factor affecting the climatic conditions of the Earth is human activity.
– Since 1950, the amount of precipitation over land has been continuously increasing, and since the 1980s, this indicator has begun to increase even more intensively.
– Between 1979-1988 and 2010-2019, there was a sharp melting of glaciers and a reduction in the thickness and area of sea ice.
– The water temperature in the upper boundaries of the ocean (0 - 700 m) has increased, and the water level has also increased by 0.20 [0.15 - 0.25] m from 1901 to 2018.
– The cause of global warming by 0.99 [0.84 - 1.10] °С from 2001 to 2020 was human activity, and one of the most influential factors is the emission of greenhouse gases.
Changes in the global average annual temperature under the factors of human and nature influence (1850 – 2020):
– In 2019, the concentration of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere was higher than at any time in the past 2 million years, and the concentration of methane and nitric oxide is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years.
– Between 2011 and 2020, the average annual Antarctic sea ice area reached its lowest level since 1850.
– The number of natural disasters has increased since 1950: droughts, floods, fires.
Assessment of changes in extreme weather conditions as a result of human activities:
Assessment of changes in the amount of heavy rainfall as a result of human activities:
Assessment of changes in agricultural and ecological drought as a result of human activities:
North America: NWN (North-Western North America), NEN (North-Eastern North America), WNA (Western North America), CNA (Central North America), ENA (Eastern North America).
Central America: NCA (Northern Central America), SCA (Southern Central America), CAR (Caribbean).
South America: NWS (North-Western South America), NSA (Northern South America), NES (North-Eastern South America), SAM (South American Monsoon), SWS (South-Western South America), SES (South-Eastern South America), SSA (Southern South America).
Europe: GIC (Greenland/Iceland), NEU (Northern Europe), WCE (Western and Central Europe), EEU (Eastern Europe), MED (Mediterranean).
Africa: MED (Mediterranean), SAH (Sahara), WAF (Western Africa), CAF (Central Africa), NEAF (North Eastern Africa), SEAF (South Eastern Africa), WSAF (West Southern Africa), ESAF (East Southern Africa), MDG (Madagascar).
Asia: RAR (Russian Arctic), WSB (West Siberia), ESB (East Siberia), RFE (Russian Far East), WCA (West Central Asia), ECA (East Central Asia), TIB (Tibetan Plateau), EAS (East Asia), ARP (Arabian Peninsula), SAS (South Asia), SEA (South East Asia).
Australasia: NAU (Northern Australia), CAU (Central Australia), EAU (Eastern Australia), SAU (Southern Australia), NZ (New Zealand).
Small Islands: CAR (Caribbean), PAC (Pacific Small Islands).
Future impacts of climate change
The calculation of the risks caused by climate change under the influence of anthropogenic factors was carried out according to various scenarios.
– From 2081 to 2100, the global temperature will increase by: 1.0 - 1.8 °C in the very low CO2 scenario and by 3.3 - 5.7 °C in the very high greenhouse gas scenario. At the moment, the most likely consequence will be a warming of 3.3 - 5.7 °C.
– Every 0.5 °C global warming causes extreme weather conditions such as heavy rainfall, droughts, floods, and fires.
– The water cycle will change.
– The intensity of melting of Arctic glaciers, land and sea ice will increase.
– In addition, sea levels are expected to rise in the mid-21st century, leading to more frequent and severe low-lying flooding and coastal erosion.
Are changes reversible and how can they be stopped?
Human actions can change the ecology and climate on our planet.
Cumulative emissions of CO2 as well as other greenhouse gases such as methane need to be reduced, thereby slowing warming effects, reducing aerosol pollution, improving food, water and air purification.
If the terms of the Paris Agreement are met, the results of global warming are reversible and will be noticeable for 20 years. But, for example, it takes millennia to reduce global sea levels.
It is also not possible at this time to quickly return to normal levels of air cleanliness in some regions, even with strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
By the end of this century, with a significant reduction in CO2, N2O, CH4 emissions, the likelihood of fires, heavy precipitation, drought, floods, and extreme heat thresholds will decrease.
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